This article for the June Economic Review examines the wage structure in Belgium over the last seven years and notably how return of experience and diplomas has changed. It also illustrates gaps in remuneration by company size and branch of activity, after controlling for staff differences.

Following the improvement recorded in March, the business barometer is back to a higher level than before the health crisis. Entrepreneurs appear more optimistic in all branches of activity surveyed, especially in the trade sector. The survey began on 1 March and was closed on the morning of 24 March, just before the announcement of renewed lockdown measures for a period of one month.

The loss of turnover suffered by Belgian firms owing to the coronavirus crisis is down again slightly. The strongest improvement comes from the non-medical contact professions, although their loss of turnover is still considerable. In contrast, the outlook for firms in 2021 and 2022 has deteriorated slightly, possibly because the health crisis is persisting for longer than expected. The survey also reveals that firms expect to reduce their office space per employee considerably. That is clearly due to a structural rise in home working.

Morale amongst consumers continues to improve, moving back to its pre-pandemic level. With the exception of prospects regarding the financial situation of surveyed households, which have stabilised, all components of the indicator have picked up.

Belgian GDP declined marginally by 0.1 % in the fourth quarter. While this was somewhat better than expected, it is likely partly due to a temporary Brexit stockpiling effect pushing up exports. The reversal of this temporary effect should depress growth at the start of 2021.