The forecasts for Belgium are compiled as part of the macroeconomic projections produced by Eurosystem and ECB staff. They are based on technical assumptions and international forecasts formulated jointly by the ECB and the national central banks of the euro area. They take into account only measures that have been – or are very likely to be – formally adopted and for which, on the cut-off date of the projections, implementing arrangements have been set out in sufficient detail. The projection period runs to year t+3 (in this case, until 2025). The margin of error is wider for later years, due in part to greater uncertainty regarding the assumptions, especially those relating to the international environment.

The latest projections for Belgium were finalised on 31 May and published on 16 June 2023. The corresponding projections for the euro area can be found on the ECB’s website.

The Belgian economy has shown great resilience in recent months and is projected to continue to grow at around the same pace in the short term. This will bring annual growth to 1.4% for 2023. In the medium term, growth is expected to moderate to 0.3% quarter over quarter or 1.2% year over year, in line with potential output, as the impact of labour shortages becomes more stringent. Indeed, the labour market remains tight, with a very low unemployment rate of less than 6%. Thanks to a sharp fall in international gas prices, inflation has already dropped markedly since last autumn. It is set to fall from more than 10% on average in 2022 to 1.9% this year. It is expected to rebound temporarily in 2024, however, due to the technical impact of the discontinuation of energy support measures but should fall back to below 2% in 2025. The budget deficit is estimated at 4.7% of GDP for 2023. With no change in policy, the deficit will not narrow in the coming years. Public debt is on an upward trajectory.