Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality


We build a novel macro-finance model that combines a semi-structural macroeconomic module with arbitrage‑free yield-curve dynamics. We estimate it for the United States and the euro area using a Bayesian approach and jointly infer the real equilibrium interest rate (r∗), trend inflation (π∗), and term premia. Similar to Bauer and Rudebusch (2020, AER), π∗ and r∗ constitute a time-varying trend for the nominal short-term rate in our model, rendering estimated term premia more stable than standard yield curve models operating with time-invariant means. In line with the literature, our r∗ estimates display a distinct decline over the last four decades.

Date and time: 
Thursday 05 May 2022, 16:30
National Bank of Belgium, KU Leuven, UAntwerpen, UCLouvain, UGent, ULB, ULiège en UNamur
Wolfgang Lemke
Microsoft Teams meeting
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