Is a recession imminent? The signal of the yield curve

Article published in the Economic Review of June 2019 (available article(s))

Historically, recessions have always been preceded by yield curve inversions. Is the recent flattening of the US yield curve a cause for concern?

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From 2019 onwards, the articles from the Economic Review are published in French and Dutch in the form of digests, their full version being available only in English.

The authors are grateful to J. Boeckx, H. Dewachter and P. Ilbas for their valuable comments.